Mean delta

Apply the 1.5-point toss-up line

This page is a calculator for one rule on the Decide Football desk. You type two means. The desk subtracts them, rounds to one decimal, and leans only when the absolute gap is 1.5 estimated points or more. Under that line the pair is a toss-up on mean alone.

The start/sit guide teaches how to read a finished lineup card: listed status, the mean, the range, and the certainty bands. The add/drop guide teaches the roster-churn label. This page applies the shared line to numbers you supply. How the estimates are built is the methodology. What the product is, and is not, is the about page.

The form does not look up a player. It does not call a projection feed. The means are yours. Listed status still outranks any number you type. Nothing here is an official projection, and nothing here is gambling advice.

The 1.5-point line

The constant is 1.5 estimated points. The same number sits in the start/sit and add/drop recommendations. Mean delta is side A minus side B, printed to one decimal, the same rounding the cards use. The line is applied to that rounded gap. At 1.5 or beyond, the higher mean is the lean. Under 1.5, the desk does not treat the higher mean as a verdict.

A gap of 1.4 points stays a toss-up. A gap of 1.5 points is a lean toward the higher mean. A tenth of a point inside the line is softness in the estimate. It is not a spread, a moneyline, or a win probability. Nothing on this desk is a gambling product.

Floor and ceiling, when the pair is a toss-up

Floor and ceiling do not move the line. The lean is the mean delta only. When you type a floor or a ceiling, the tool shows them so you can weigh the range. They are a low end and a high end around the mean you entered. They are not a promise of points.

When the pair is a toss-up, that range is what you weigh next. If you are protecting a lead and a crater would give the week away, weigh the floor: which side leaves less room to fall apart. If you are behind and a modest mean will not catch the gap, weigh the ceiling. That is the same reading the start/sit guide gives for a finished card. It is still roster reading. It is not odds.

On the real card, listed status is read before any of those numbers. OUT, IR, and INACTIVE force that side to zero. The model does not invent a return date. What each designation means is the listed status guide. If the status and the mean disagree, believe the status. This tool cannot see a designation you did not account for in the means you typed.

One delta, two cards

Start/sit asks which name to put in the lineup. When the rounded gap clears 1.5, the sentence names the higher side: Start that side. Inside the line, the sentence is a toss-up: lean neither side on mean alone. The card also prints a certainty grade — thin, lean, clear, or strong. A toss-up keeps that grade thin. This tool prints the delta and the line. It does not print that grade. The arithmetic for the grade is on the methodology page, labeled v0 and subject to change.

Add/drop asks which name to keep by adding one over the name you would drop. The same gap switches the sentence. At 1.5 or more, the higher mean is the add and the other name is the drop. Inside the line, there is no add/drop edge on mean alone. That card does not know your league, your waiver order, or your FAAB balance. It is not a claim that either name is free on ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper, or any other host. How to read the label is the add/drop guide.

The toggle on this page switches between those two sentences. The subtraction does not change. Role and listed status still matter on both cards.

What this tool is not

• Not a player search, and not a call to a projection feed.
• Not a substitute for listed status. OUT, IR, and INACTIVE still zero a side on the real card.
• Not the start/sit certainty grade. Thin, lean, clear, and strong live on that card.
• Not a free-agent claim, a waiver-priority order, or FAAB advice.
• Not an official projection, club report, or injury wire.
• Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL or its member clubs. Names you type are labels for the comparison only.
• Not gambling advice, odds, or a sportsbook.
• Not a backtest. The method is methodology v0, subject to change. No accuracy rate is published here, and none should be inferred.

Where the reading guides are

The sample start/sit and add/drop desks stay out of search until licensed GREEN sports data is in place. This page does not set a date for that, and it does not promise those URLs will enter a search index. This tool lives at /guide/toss-up/. It does not put fixture player rows into the form, and it does not put those desks into search.

Read the line on the cards in the start/sit guide and the add/drop guide. How the numbers are built is the methodology. The rest of the reading notes sit on the guides hub. What the product is, and is not, is the about page.

Questions