Reading the board
How to read a waiver radar tag
A Decide Football waiver row carries one urgency tag: hot, rising, stash, or fade. The tag is built from the same weekly estimates the rest of the desk uses, plus snap-share change and the listed status. It ranks how hard this desk would chase the name. It does not say the player is sitting free on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper, or any other host.
This page is how to read that tag. How the estimates are built is the methodology. How to read the mean, the floor and ceiling, and the certainty grade is the start/sit guide. What the product is, and is not, is the about page.
The four tags
The board prints one tag per row. Read it as urgency, not as a lineup order and not as a transaction your league has already approved.
- Hot. The claim tag. Listed status is healthy, and the estimate supports spending a waiver claim if the bench is dead weight. This is the strongest urgency the board prints. It is still not a start order.
- Rising. Snap share is up versus the prior week, and the role is moving the right way. The row has not cleared hot. Rising is a direction, not a finished add.
- Stash. Hold if you have a bench spot. The row is not urgent enough to chase and not weak enough to fade. A bench decision. Not a start for this week.
- Fade. Do not spend waiver budget chasing this. Snap share is down, the estimate is soft, or listed status has taken the name off the week. A pass on the claim.
Same estimates, two extra inputs
Start/sit, the weekly rankings, and this board share one mean. That mean is the ranking number. Floor and ceiling are a model range around it, not a promise of points. Certainty, on a start/sit card, is a desk grade of how hard the math can lean. It is not the probability of winning the fantasy week. The start/sit guide is where that card is taught.
Waiver urgency adds the two inputs the tag is actually for. Snap share versus the prior week can lift a row into rising, or into hot when the listing is healthy and the mean already supports a claim. A sharp drop in snap share can put the row on fade even when the mean has not collapsed. Listed status sits on top of both. The tag is that combination. It is not a separate scouting report, and a score printed beside the tag only orders urgency on this desk.
Status before the tag
OUT, IR, and INACTIVE are not adds to start this week. The model sets that estimate to zero. It does not invent a return date, a practice window, or a sentence about when someone might be back. Hot requires a healthy listing, so those rows do not print hot. The tag drops to a pass. The note on the row can still call the name a stash rather than a start. Read both the same way: not a lineup add this week.
If the status and the tag look like they disagree, believe the status. A hot tag does not outrank an OUT label, and this desk does not print hot over that gate.
Questionable and doubtful are a discount. They are not a cleared player, and they are not the healthy listing hot uses. A designation other than healthy does not print hot. If snap share is up, the row can still read rising. That is a direction under a dirty status, not a cleared start. The designation is an input someone listed. The tag does not vote a new one into existence.
Not a free-agent list
The tag does not know your platform. It does not know your waiver order, your FAAB balance, or who your league already rostered. A hot row can already be owned. A fade row can be the best name still sitting free in a thin league. Check the host. Then use the tag to judge whether this desk would spend a claim.
FAAB on a fade line means waiver budget: do not chase the name with it. That is a roster call. It is not a spread, a moneyline, or advice on a wager. Nothing on this desk is a gambling product.
Where the board is
The waiver board is on the site so the product can be used and reviewed. Those URLs use sample data. They stay out of search until licensed GREEN sports data is in place. This page does not set a date for that, and it does not promise those URLs will enter a search index.
The public description of the tag is this guide, the methodology, the start/sit guide, and the about page.
What this is not
- Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL or its member clubs. Names are identification for fantasy analysis only.
- Not an official waiver wire, club report, or injury wire.
- Not a claim that any name is available on a host platform.
- Not gambling advice, odds, or a sportsbook.
- Not a backtest. The method is methodology v0, subject to change. No accuracy rate is published here, and none should be inferred.
Questions
What does hot mean here, and how is it different from rising?
Hot is the claim tag. The listing is healthy, and the estimate supports spending a waiver claim if the bench is dead weight. Rising means snap share is up and the role is moving the right way, but the row has not cleared hot. Rising is a direction. Hot is the stronger urgency. Neither tag means the player is free in your league, and neither is a win probability.
Does the tag mean the player is free on my platform?
No. A waiver radar tag is not a claim that the name is available on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper, or any other host. This desk does not see your league's free-agent pool. The tag ranks urgency from the same estimates used on the rest of the desk, plus snap-share change and listed status. Check the platform before you treat any row as an add.
When is a row a stash, and when is it a fade?
Stash means hold if you have a bench spot. The row is not urgent enough to chase. Fade means do not spend waiver budget chasing it: snap share is down, the estimate is soft, or listed status has taken the name off this week. Stash is a bench decision. Fade is a pass. Neither is a this-week start, and neither is gambling advice.
How does listed status override a hot tag?
OUT, IR, and INACTIVE are not adds to start this week. Those designations force the estimate to zero, and a hot tag is not printed over that gate. Hot requires a healthy listing. If the status and the tag look like they disagree, believe the status. Questionable and doubtful are a discount, not a cleared player, and not the healthy listing hot uses.
Is the waiver radar an official wire or a backtest?
No. Decide Football is not affiliated with the NFL or its member clubs. The radar is not an official waiver wire, not gambling advice, and not a published backtest. Fixture radar pages use sample data and stay out of search until licensed GREEN sports data is in place. The method is methodology v0, subject to change.